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Op-Ed AUGUST 28, 2026 | The Indian Eye 14

Why Pakistani regime is

afraid of Imran Khan

Three years behind bars have not diminished Imran Khan’s political influence; if anything, his

imprisonment has turned him into the central challenge to Pakistan’s political and military establishment

ASHISH K SINGH

here is a simple question behind Pakistan’s
continuing political crisis: if Imran Khan is
Tas politically finished as the government and
military establishment suggest, why is he still in jail?
Khan has been imprisoned since August 2023
and remains at Adiala Jail, despite several of the
cases that once threatened to keep him behind bars
having been overturned, suspended or otherwise
weakened. He is still facing a formidable collection
of legal cases, however, including corruption-re-
lated convictions. The most consequential is the
Al-Qadir Trust case, in which Khan and his wife
were sentenced in 2025 to 14 years in prison. Khan
denies wrongdoing and says the prosecutions are
politically motivated.
That is the legal explanation. The political ex-
planation is more revealing.
Khan is not in prison simply because he is a
convicted former prime minister. He is in prison
because he remains the most formidable political
challenger to Pakistan’s existing power structure.
His popularity was demonstrated dramatically
in the February 2024 general election. Although The irony is that every attempt to push Imran Khan out of politics appears to reinforce his centrality (File photo)
Khan was behind bars and his Pakistan Teh-
reek-e-Insaf (PTI) was prevented from contesting establishment that has traditionally exercised enor- comes greater than the cost of releasing him, the
under its party symbol, candidates backed by the mous influence over Pakistan’s political system. calculation could change.
party won the largest number of directly elected Na- Khan’s relationship with the military was once For now, however, the government’s behaviour
tional Assembly seats. The result forced a coalition close. His rise to power in 2018 was widely seen as suggests that it sees Khan’s release as a political risk
of rival political parties to form the government. having benefited from military support. But the rather than merely a legal decision. For India, an un-
That election exposed the central weakness of relationship collapsed spectacularly before his re- stable Pakistan is never a comfortable development.
the present arrangement: it can keep Khan away moval from office in April 2022. Since then, Khan A Pakistan consumed by an internal power
from power, but it has struggled to remove him has transformed himself into perhaps the strongest struggle has less political bandwidth for economic
from the political imagination of Pakistan. civilian critic of the establishment. reform, regional engagement and sustained diplo-
The latest controversy concerns Khan’s health. For the military establishment, therefore, the macy with its neighbours. At the same time, political
His family and PTI have raised serious concerns issue is not simply whether Khan becomes prime instability inside Pakistan can increase the tempta-
about his medical condition, particularly problems minister again. It is whether a politician who has tion to use nationalism and India-related rhetoric as
with his right eye. Khan has been diagnosed with openly challenged its political role can return to the a means of consolidating domestic support.
central retinal vein occlusion, and his lawyers have centre of Pakistani politics. The more important Indian interest is stabili-
argued that he requires specialist treatment. Jail The present government therefore has a legiti- ty — a Pakistan where civilian institutions function,
authorities, meanwhile, have maintained that his macy problem. It may possess parliamentary power, elections command credibility and the military does
condition has improved and that he is receiving ad- but parliamentary power and popular legitimacy not remain the ultimate arbiter of political power.
equate medical care. are not necessarily the same thing. Imran Khan’s imprisonment has not solved Pa-
The episode illustrates why Khan remains such That explains the extraordinary sensitivity sur- kistan’s political problem. It has exposed it.
a sensitive figure: even a hospital visit can become a rounding Khan’s movements, prison access and The irony is that every attempt to push Khan
political mobilisation point. medical treatment. out of politics appears to reinforce his centrality.
The current political order has survived partly Khan has multiple cases and convictions, mean- His opponents may control the government, parlia-
because its most popular opponent has been physi- ing that winning or suspending one case does not ment and much of the state machinery. But as long
cally removed from the political arena. His release automatically free him. The state can continue to as a jailed politician can remain the most powerful
would give PTI a leader capable of addressing sup- rely on other proceedings to keep him incarcerated. symbol of opposition, the question confronting Pa-
porters directly, organising protests and potentially But politics can move faster than courts. kistan is not whether Imran Khan matters.
challenging the government through elections. If negotiations emerge between PTI and the It is how long the system can continue to keep
More importantly, Khan’s confrontation is not establishment, if courts provide broader relief, or if him behind bars without confronting the political
merely with one political party. It is with a wider the political cost of keeping Khan imprisoned be- forces that put him there.

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